PREDICTION MODEL TOOL
The Prediction Model Tool is a decision-support tool designed to assist decision-makers in evaluating whether, and under what conditions, the implementation of SurPass is appropriate within a given health system scenario. It also provides estimates of the expected costs and impacts associated with implementation in different settings. The tool integrates Cost-Utility Analysis (CUA) and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) making it a transparent and systematic approach to health policy prioritization.
The tool is delivered as an interactive Microsoft Excel application (download below), offering a user-friendly interface for scenario specification and decision analysis. Users will be able to define health system scenarios—drawing from the six pilot countries or incorporating other relevant system features—and customize MCDA parameters, including the selection and weighting of decision criteria, to reflect their specific policy environments.

